Summarizing Matthew Gardners' Crystal Ball Presentation 2024
Today, I got to see Matthew Gardner, Real Estate Economist present his Crystal Ball predictions for 2024. My friend and colleague, Pam Bigatel from Berkshire Hathoway and I summarized what we learned before we made our way back to West Seattle. Watch and listen to our impromptu conversation like you were sitting right there with us.
Takeaways from our conversation
2024, being an election year is what they call a “transition year’. Where we are recovering from a chaotic market and level setting to the trends that were pre-covid.
Many buyers are migrating to Seattle because of jobs and climate change. With our weather becoming more mild, it’s attractive for those who are coming from a higher price point market. So they are not afraid to pay cash for their Seattle home. In fact, in 2023, 1 in 5 buyers paid in cash.
Biotech and Aerospace are industries on the rise here in Seattle.
Amazon, Meta, and other IT companies are hiring to their campuses on the East Side. They are required to come to the office if they expect to get promotions in the future.
85.3% of homeowners in King County have an interest rate below 5%. With rates being between 7-8% today, only those who need to sell (job change, death, or divorce) are doing so. Once there is a 1% difference in rates that homeowners have and still feel good about moving, we should see the market pick up. That’s not predicted this year in 2024. Lowest interest rate is expected in Q4 hovering around 6%.
Because land is so scarce and building costs are so high, new construction is limited. It’s just not penciling for investors and builders, so the folks buying up properties are transplants with cash and generational wealth.
Overall, the change in the market (a 2.7% decrease from 2022) is because of affordability. Its effecting buyers, sellers, investors, renters, and current homeowners all around.